IP-MAX — Industrial Policy Scoring Tool
Indicator-based screening of German manufacturing supply chains: import dependencies, enterprise structure and inter-sector linkages in one place.
Purpose
IP-MAX supports industrial-policy analysis by collecting, for each manufacturing sector, the statistics needed to judge supply-chain exposure: where imports come from and how concentrated they are, which products in its mapped basket are bottlenecks, how the sector is positioned in the domestic production network, and which other sectors depend on its output.
Design
The tool deliberately avoids a single composite "risk score". Every indicator is shown in its raw form and coloured red / yellow / green by tertile relative to the covered sectors, so you can always see which dimension drives a sector's position and judge it in context.
Data & vintages
- 2024 EU import-dependency & concentration indicators — sector and CN8 product level (trade data)
- 2014–2023 Enterprise panel (MUP), innovation panel (MIP) and value-added indicators — latest available year is 2023
- 2022 German input-output table — inter-sector supply flows (Destatis)
- Patents Cross-division patent-citation flows between manufacturing divisions (knowledge network)
Production Network
Domestic supply flows between 62 German economic sectors (Destatis 2022 input-output table). Nodes are sized by value added and positioned left→right by upstreamness; hover to trace a sector's suppliers and customers, or click to open its full input→output Sankey (domestic, imported, exports & intra-sector).
Knowledge Network
Technological knowledge flows between 24 manufacturing divisions (WZ 10–33), measured by patent citations. Nodes are sized by value added and positioned left→right by how upstream a field sits in the citation chain; hover to trace which fields a division draws on and which build on it, or click to open its full citation Sankey.
Suppliers that sell into this sector
"Of supplier's output" = how much of that supplier's production the selected sector buys. "Of selected's inputs" = how much of the selected sector's input basket comes from that supplier.
Sectors that rely on this sector's output
"Of customer's inputs" = how much of that customer's input basket the selected sector supplies. "Of selected's output" = how much of the selected sector's domestic output that customer absorbs.
Methodology & Variable Dictionary
Explanatory specifications detailing indicators from the database schema and mathematical formulas used in computing indices.
1. Trade Dependency & World Concentration (`dpd_` indicators)
Computed per product line (HS6), then attached to sectors through the CN→NACE correspondence. The concentration measures (HHI, CR1/CR4/CR10) are import-weighted averages across the sector's products. The level measures — EU imports / EU exports of mapped products — are unweighted sums over that same basket, with every product counted in full in each sector it maps to: the median sector's basket holds 478 HS6 products, and the 193 sectors reporting EU imports sum to €30.9tn, 13.8× the EU's own goods-import total of €2.24tn. Read them as basket size, not as the sector's own trade.
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of supplier-country shares is computed per product, then averaged (import-weighted) across the sector's products. It measures how concentrated the typical product's sourcing is — not the share held by any one country across the whole sector. Values over 0.25 indicate highly concentrated products.
For each product, the combined import share of its top 1 / 4 / 10 supplier countries, averaged (import-weighted) across the sector's products. So CR1 is the typical product's leading-supplier share — not the single largest country's share of the whole sector.
The same per-product concentration measures applied to global exports (worldwide country exports, not just EU imports), averaged across the sector's products. Distinguishes whether sourcing is globally consolidated or concentrated specifically for the EU market.
The sector's leading supplier country: the single country that is the #1 source for the largest share of the sector's imports. The value is the combined EU imports of all products for which that country is the top supplier; the share is those products' portion of that mapped-product basket — not the country's full share across every product.
Measures the structural distance of the sector's output from final household consumption. Basic resources like metals, chemicals, and energy score high in upstreamness (>3.5) and have wide systemic shock impacts downstream.
Measures how easily EU buyers can switch to alternative suppliers or substitute products when faced with price changes. Strongly negative numbers (e.g. < -6.0) represent high flexibility; numbers close to 0 (e.g. -1.5) indicate highly specialized components with few options.
The share of the sector's mapped products for which EU exports exceed EU imports — i.e. the EU is a net exporter of the product. This is a sign test on the trade balance; it says nothing about production capacity or about any disruption scenario. It is the exact complement of net-importer reliance: the two always sum to 100%.
2. Enterprise Indicators & Soundness Check (`mup_` & `mip_` indicators)
Integrated Mannheim Enterprise Panel (MUP) and Innovation Panel (MIP) survey records outlining industry scale, credit stability, and R&D resilience.
Count of active operating corporations in the domestic sector, alongside the subset of companies currently going through legal insolvency proceedings.
The average credit scoring calculated by Creditreform (scaled from 100 [best] to 600 [insolvent default]). Scores >350 represent credit strains, signifying heightened corporate default risks in the event of logistics or raw materials shocks.
Annual expenditures on internal Research & Development (FuE) and total innovation investments, recorded in millions of Euros. High-innovation industries exhibit greater technological flexibility during embargoes.
The sector's direct contributions to gross value added (GVA) relative to the wider GDP. Outlines the severe macro-economic scale should this specific supply chain crash.